Wooly mammoths parading in the snow, pirate ships navigating waves of coffee, and intimate walks through the streets of Japan – Oh my!
The reaction to Sora, Open AI’s new text-to-video generator, has been, simply, WOW! (See Cleo Abram’s enthusiastic reaction below.)
Yes, we’ve been inundated by large language models like ChatGPT, Gemini, You, Claude and Perplexity that can summarize, edit, compose, research and brainstorm for you with astonishing fluency. We’ve witnessed a revolution in image and video generators and editors like DALL-E, Midjourney, Capcut, and Canva. We get chills when we hear the natural and fluent tones of AI-generated voices, even our own, from apps like Invideo and Elevenlabs.
We are in the midst of such rapid and mindboggling change that experts can’t keep up.
Every year, an interdisciplinary group of researchers called “AI Impacts” conduct a survey with AI researchers. In the 14 months between their survey in October, 2023 and August, 2022, experts have dramatically sped up their timelines for when AI will reach “high level machine intelligence (HLMI),” a point when “unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.”
From 2016 to 2022, AI Impacts saw little change, with experts predicting a 50% chance of AI achieving HLMI by the year2060. But in the past year, experts see that level being hit by 2047! (For a clear explanation of this study, watch this video by Sabine Hossenfelder.)
Right now, the speed of change is bewildering.
And amidst the myriad number of AI tools available to the public, many of them are solutions in search of problems that the majority of people don’t have. Yes, you can replicate your voice and face with AI tools, but most people are not content creators on Tik Tok, or celebrities who want to use a realistic avatar to hawk consumer goods.
But let’s not fool ourselves: the technological changes happening now will have global and societal-transforming impacts in the long run.
I’m not smart enough to see what will happen in the next few years, but I am dumb enough certainly to look into the future with speculation. As the rapid democratization of content creation continues, I believe we will likely see multiple futures. Let’s look at three.
The Golden Renaissance Scenario: AI will drive a revolution in education, with AI bots mentoring and motivating students to build fundamentally powerful growth mindsets, honing their critical thinking skills in pursuit of truth and beauty. AI will become a collaborator in whatever you pursue, the Lennon to your McCartney, the Jobs to your Wozniak, the Crick (or Holmes) to your Watson. The availability of these tools will democratize creativity, and unleash a stunning wave of original thought, performance and art.
The Demolition Man Scenario: People will become so dependent on artificial intelligence systems that their ability to think and act on their own will atrophy, leading to a race to mediocrity. The market place will see nothing but AI-generated content, where human artists have no will to push the envelope, as AI will have seemed to have cornered the market for anything novel. The result will be sameness, a homogeneity that crushes attempts at novelty. Re-watch the scene from the movie, Demolition Man, where Sylvester Stallone is a cop woken up in a future where Taco Bell has become the only restaurant brand in the world.
The Goldilocks Scenario: In this scenario, clear ethical guidelines and regulations have been established for the use of AI, ensuring respect for intellectual property, which leads to the proliferation of hybrid forms of art to emerge, even traditional crafts people leveraging AI that help to promote and preserve art forms that have existed for centuries. Most importantly, an environment that is not technological-advancement-at-all-cost, will become very human centric. The everyday presence and ease of AI and other advanced technologies will not only allow us to tap levels of creativity not seen till now, but also foster a renewed interest in human-centric modes: live performance, handicraft, interpersonal interaction.
It’s critical to understand the possible futures – not to predict them, but to target one, and make it happen.
ARTICLE FAQS
1. Why are experts accelerating their timelines for advanced AI?
Surveys of AI researchers show expectations for “high level machine intelligence” have shifted forward by more than a decade, from around 2060 to 2047. The pace of AI progress in language, images, video, and voice has exceeded previous expectations, fueling speculation about transformative impacts within a single generation.
2. What are the main scenarios for society after widespread AI adoption?
The article outlines three: a Golden Renaissance of democratized creativity and education, a Demolition Man future of dependence and homogenized content, and a Goldilocks balance where AI is integrated responsibly alongside human-centric values.
3. What does the Golden Renaissance scenario look like?
AI becomes a collaborative partner in human endeavors, enhancing education, creativity, and problem solving. Students and creators alike use AI to cultivate growth mindsets, critical thinking, and artistic originality, leading to a flourishing of ideas and culture.
4. What risks are described in the Demolition Man scenario?
Over-reliance on AI could weaken human initiative and originality. If content creation becomes dominated by AI outputs, novelty and diversity may collapse, leaving societies with homogenous, mediocre cultural products.
5. What makes the Goldilocks scenario different?
This vision depends on ethical guardrails, thoughtful regulation, and respect for intellectual property. It imagines AI as a tool that complements traditional crafts, live performance, and interpersonal connection, striking a balance between technology and humanity.
6. Why should we think in scenarios rather than predictions?
The future of AI is highly uncertain, but considering multiple possible outcomes helps individuals and societies aim toward desirable futures. By identifying and targeting the “Goldilocks” balance, people can take action to shape a future that sustains both innovation and human values.
